Should All Surveys Be Immediately Believed?
By
I once heard a Catholic priest in his sermon quote
some statistics from a survey done by Pew Research
Center. He said that more than nearly 69% of
Catholics do not believe in transubstantiation. This
word describes the most important teaching of the
Catholic Church which postulates that the bread and
wine is transformed into the body and blood of
Christ as the priest does the consecration of the
Mass using the same words that Christ used at the
last supper when he said,” This is my body and this
is my blood.” There are other leaders in the Church
who have also mentioned this 69 percent affirming
that it was true and accurate.
Given that I try to be a practicing Catholic, I was
immediately skeptical as I am of all surveys in
general due to the fact that I have done surveys and
read many while getting my doctorate degree. I have
also taught statistics in college. Thus 69% was hard
to believe. So, I embarked on a search for answers
by reviewing the Pew research and trying to confirm
its validity.
I must admit that my original reaction was
one of total disbelief which could of course
influence my review here, even when I try to be as
neutral as possible.
There are many important considerations to know
before a survey is undertaken if you want one that
is valid and provides results that can be both real
and useful. Here are some of the most important of
those considerations in my estimation:
Sampling:
It is virtually impossible to survey the entire
population that you want to study. So, researchers
use what is called sampling. This is a method where
a representative group (the sample) is randomly
selected. This sample must be representative of the
population. The size of the sample must also be
significant and include other characteristics such
as geographic location, education, level of
experience, participation, etc. For example, if you
want to survey bank teller attitudes in Florida, you
must sample tellers that match the characteristics
of the population you are trying to study.
Demographics:
The researcher must try to match the demographic
characteristics (Race, gender, age, etc.) of the
sample to that of the population being studied. For
example, the number of different races in the sample
must be close to the percentages of these same races
in the population.
Survey Document:
The survey must contain demographic information as
well as the survey questions. The wording of the
questions is crucial to the credibility of results.
Most legitimate questionnaires are either already
proven or they go through a process to prove they
are not biased. The questions can be leading ones.
That means that the subject has been led to answer
in a certain way due to the wording of the question.
For example, the question may read, what makes you
upset about working in a bank? Such a question could
lead the subject to answer on a negative way. The
choice of answers available must also be inclusive
of all potential possibilities. For example, Choice
A could be “Long hours” B could be “Low pay” and so
on.
Financing:
How is the research financed? That is an important
question. Why is this research being done? That is
another one. Who could benefit from the results and
who could be harmed by the results? Yet another
important question. Some researchers with less than
pure intentions will manipulate the sampling factors
as well as the questions being asked to benefit one
party or another or even themselves. Many times, the
source of financing is also not disclosed. This lack
of disclosure should be an immediate clear sign of a
lack of validity. For example, if research is done
to proof the efficacy of a medical drug and then
financed by the manufacturer of that medical drug,
the chances are that the results will be bias
towards the manufacturer.
After doing a lot of reading and compiling several
sources of information, I have concluded that the
Pew Research Center research of August 2019 titled:
“Just one-third of U.S. Catholics agree with their
church that Eucharist is body, blood of Christ,” is
not valid and is also biased.
This is why:
Sampling:
Pew used what they call the American Trends Panel
(ATP) as a sample. It is a group of people Pew has
convinced to participate, not only on this research,
but in others. It is not a random sample in my
opinion. These are people who like to take surveys
and not the random Catholics that you would survey
at their church or via the website of several
churches throughout the U.S.
(Strike One)
The size of this ATP group at the time of the survey
was 10,971 which included 1,835 so called Catholics.
In other words, only around 11% of the respondents
were self-described as Catholics. According to Pew’s
own research in October 2018, there were 51 million
Catholics in the U.S. This number represented around
15% of the U.S. population. Thus, their sample was
too small as only 11% of the total respondents.
Also, calling Catholic those who do not regularly go
to Mass at least on Sunday is a stretch, in my
opinion.
(Strike Two)
According to that same Pew research, in 2014
Hispanics represented 34% of the Catholic population
in the U.S. The number of Hispanics out of the
10,971 respondents in this particular survey was
1,191 or 11%. Given that most Hispanics are
Catholic, this sample was invalid.
(Strike Three, You Are Out!)
Demographics:
Pew divides the Catholics into three groups: (A)
Those who attend Mass weekly or more, (B) Those who
attend Mass Monthly/Yearly, and (C) Those who attend
Mass Seldom/Never. However, Pew does not disclose
how many respondents belong to each group. I wonder
why. They only disclose how each group answered the
question. From the overall percentage that Pew
published, i.e., that 69% do not believe in
transubstantiation, one can easily estimate that
most of the Catholics who responded were in the last
two groups. Let me explain:
The report discloses these numbers:
37% of those in the (A) group do not believe in
transubstantiation.
72% of those in the (B) group do not believe in
transubstantiation.
87% of those in the (C) group do not believe in
transubstantiation.
If 37% of Catholics in Group (A) do not believe in
transubstantiation and 72% and 87% from groups (B)
and (C) also do not believe, then the only way you
get the finding that 69% do not believe, is if Group
(A) is much smaller than the other two groups
combined. A large percentage of those in groups (B)
and (C) do not believe it. Is that why they do not
come to Mass regularly? or is it because they do not
come to Mass regularly the reason that they don’t
believe it? Which is it? The lord only knows.
If 37% of Catholics in Group (A) do not believe,
this means that 63% of practicing Catholics, Group
(A), believe this dogma. Of course, if these numbers
were valid, there should be some concern that 37%
does not believe. But the 63% who believe, is a lot
better than “JUST ONE THIRD” (31%) which was
reported by Pew. This is a misleading headline and
because most people only read the headline, they are
foolishly led to believe something that even the
survey results do not support.
Pew showed no responses from black Catholics. They
only listed White and Hispanics. This can only mean
that there were no blacks in the sample who were
Catholic. As we all know there are many blacks that
are Catholic in the U.S. This also reenforce the
deficiency of the sample. They also showed that men
believe more than women do and the higher your level
of education, the more you believe. These last two
results are also questionable in my mind. These seem
to be contra intuitive.
Survey Document:
Pew did not supply that document in their article.
All Pew has is the question and the set of possible
answers respondents could choose from.
The Question:
“Regardless of the official teaching of the Catholic
Church, what do you personally believe about the
bread and wine used for Communion?”
In my opinion the first sentence of this question is
cleverly leading the respondents to not believe. It
is not necessary to include otherwise.
The Possible Answers:
·
Actually become the body and blood of Jesus Christ
(31% of all Catholics in the sample chose this one)
·
Are symbols of the body and blood of Jesus Christ
(69% of all Catholics in the sample chose this one)
Financing:
Pew describes itself in their website as follows:
“Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that
informs the public about the issues, attitudes and
trends shaping the world. We conduct public opinion
polling, demographic research, content analysis and
other data-driven social science research. We do not
take policy positions.”
This is how
Pew describes their funding:
“As documented in our IRS
Form 990,
our activities are largely funded through grants
from The Pew Charitable Trusts. The Pew Charitable
Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge to solve
today’s most challenging problems by improving
public policy, informing the public and invigorating
civic life. Pew is an independent nonprofit
organization — the sole beneficiary of seven
individual trusts established between 1948 and 1979
by two sons and two daughters of Sun Oil Company
founder Joseph N. Pew and his wife, Mary Anderson
Pew.”
There is no disclosure regarding why Pew did this
survey or if they received any separate funding for
it.
Conclusion:
As I mentioned earlier, this research, in my
opinion, is not valid and is presented with a bias
against the Catholic Church. The sampling is
completely wrong, the demographics are questionable
to say the least, and the survey question is not
unbiased.
The clergy and laity of the Catholic Church should
not use this research and chastise with it those who
come to church regularly. We should use it in a
positive way and work on communicating with the 37%
(according to this faulty research) that supposedly
do not believe in
transubstantiation. I suggest more sermons
explaining the Eucharistic miracles, presentations
showing videos of these miracles, and seminars and
classes that bring in experts on the topic
I also suggest that some segment of the Catholic
Church commissions an independent reputable
researcher to conduct similar research using all the
safeguards and accepted scientific practices to
explore this topic in an unbiased manner.
I praise those who firmly believe in the
transubstantiation and invite those who doubt it, to
learn more about it and pray for God’s wisdom so as
to accept it and believe more fully the true
presence of the Body and Blood of Christ at the
altar during Mass.
Sources:
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2019/07/23/religious-knowledge-methodology/
https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FT_19.08.05_Transubstantiation_Topline.pdf
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/10/10/7-facts-about-american-catholics/
https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/252998/us-catholic-population-shows-growth-trends-southward